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Busy doing nothing

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

Today's data calendar is a desolate wasteland of nothingness. Iceland's April trade balance is the sole legitimate economic data point. Icelandic trade, while important, is unlikely to shape global financial markets. This leaves us with politics as a driving force.

This week US President Trump is expected to reveal whether the US will honor the Iranian nuclear deal. The diplomatic skills of UK Foreign Secretary Johnson are to be brought to bear – the foreign secretary flies to Washington. The oil market has clearly priced in a risk of disruption from this matter.

There are no particular deadlines in the US-China trade dispute this week. The rather ambitious demands of the US were leaked last week. This matters because now that they are public, US President Trump may feel some approximation of the demands will have to be met to enable the Trump Twitter Feed to declare "we won".

The eternal tedium of the UK-EU divorce continues with reports that a customs partnership idea is being revived. The Argentinian peso may get a glance or two from investors in the wake of the aggressive rate hikes last week. This is a localized problem, unlikely to spread to other emerging markets.