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What's in a name?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • European politics is back again. This time it is not the Italians. This time it is the Spanish. The opposition Socialist party has called a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Rajoy, after people associated with Rajoy's party were convicted of corruption. The possibility of an election has risen. This is a risk that may not be fully priced.
  • UK first quarter GDP is due to be revised. Almost no one believes the original first quarter data, which seems to have understated growth. Meanwhile, the endlessly tedious UK-EU divorce process has continued to be endlessly tedious, but now has added name calling.
  • US President Trump cancelled the summit with North Korean President Kim, in the wake of name calling. South Korean President Moon implied that Twitter may not be the best medium of communication for serious conversations (follow me @PDonovan_Econ). Markets are not going to care terribly much about any of it.
  • European central bank speakers seem to have moved to signal that tightening is coming, and the soft patch is not a worry. The Turkish lira has continued to weaken. Investors presumably do not believe that the 3% rate increase is enough to slow domestic credit growth.