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Prices and politics

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Chinese consumer prices fell a little on weaker food prices. Producer prices rose – but China's inflation is mainly a local affair. Producer prices have only a limited relationship with export prices, and Chinese export prices have almost no relationship with consumer prices elsewhere in the world.
  • US consumer prices are scheduled today. The Federal Reserve puts its faith in the personal consumer expenditure deflator, but revealed preference suggests the markets weight consumer price data more highly. Today's data is very unlikely to change Fed policy.
  • The Bank of England rate decision is due today. The language of the Canadian who is governor of the bank has created uncertainty about the path of tightening this year. Data can be used to justify no tightening. Other aspects of the economy can be used to justify a move.
  • The Italian president has suggested parties have until this afternoon to come up with a workable government before a technocrat government is imposed. Former Prime Minister Berlusconi has suggested that Forza Italia may back a government led by the "anti-party" Five Star movement. That would not be viewed as market friendly, but Italian investors have a certain amount of experience with political uncertainty.