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The critical uncertainty about the ECB press conference

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

The main point of interest at today's ECB press conference is what color tie ECB President Draghi will wear. That is a far more uncertain outcome than the policy decision. The ECB's unneeded bond buying program will continue for now. We do expect it to conclude by the end of the year (with rate hikes within six months of the end of bond buying).

The eternal tedium of the UK-EU divorce process is enlivened by a debate in the UK House of Commons. There is a non-binding vote on whether the UK should leave the EU customs union. The vote has no direct consequences but may show the balance of probabilities.

French President Macron suggested that US President Trump is likely to pull out of the Iranian nuclear deal. This has relevance for financial markets via the oil price – although the idea of the US breaking the treaty has been partially factored in.

US capital goods data is due. The problem with these numbers is that the way investment takes place has changed. This morning's comment was researched on an iPad I paid for, and recorded using an app I paid for. Consumer spending may be capital spending in the modern world.