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Sanction strikes

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

Reports suggest the US will announce more economic sanctions against Russia today, in response to the Syrian situation. The mission is not yet quite accomplished, it seems. Markets react to economic sanctions (in a way that they do not react to air strikes), as specific assets are directly affected.

It is not only US President Trump facing political concerns. Japanese Prime Minister Abe's approval rating fell to 26.7% in a weekend poll. Conventional wisdom is that an average approval rating of 30% or lower is a problem. However, Abe has been in office a long time and has few policy initiatives to pursue. Change may not be that market threatening were it to occur.

Retail sales data is due from the US for March. Seasonal adjustment is not great at dealing with random weather, nor with the semi-random timing of Easter. Headline data is often revised, and it is often the details that indicate the trends of growth. There is little reason to worry about the outlook.

German wholesale price inflation for March is due. This can be taken as a proxy for corporate pricing power, and through that corporate perceptions of the trends of economic demand.