Follow Paul Donovan


| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

US President Trump suggested that there may not, in fact, be any new tariffs imposed in the Sino-US trade dispute, and that the US might apply to join the TPP. Markets have given cautious welcome to this news. Welcome, because avoiding a trade war is a clear economic positive. Cautious, because market trust in US presidential announcements is, perhaps, a little limited.

Re-joining the TPP could be construed as anti-Chinese. The TPP is a preferential trade deal, meaning that those outside the deal are at a competitive disadvantage to those inside the deal. On the Sino-US trade dispute, the US does seem to be pushing hard for a tweetable "we won" moment. The substance of any deal seems less important.

China's trade surplus became a deficit in March. This is, of course, seasonal and temporary. The Euro area will be publishing their trade surplus figures for February later today.

Various parts of the Euro area are giving final March consumer price inflation data. This is not a focus for the markets at the moment – it is the US data that has partially freed itself from the distortions caused by non-market prices effects. Euro area data may be more interesting later this year.