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Better to tweet-tweet than to war-war?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Concerns about a trade war have faded from markets somewhat. The hope is that there will be a trade skirmish with added rhetoric from the Trump Twitter feed. The news that White House adviser Cohn is organizing a meeting between steel and aluminum consumers and US President Trump is seen as helpful in promoting a less aggressive stance.
  • Italy's politics has settled into a not entirely shocking period of uncertainty. The exit polls seem to have done a reasonable job of predicting the outcomes (so far). The process of negotiating a government will take some time, but Italy is used to functioning on political autopilot.
  • The US offers capital spending and durable goods data. The numbers are too early to show the consequences of the tax cuts, although for listed companies using tax cuts to finance share buybacks and dividends seems to be favored over capital spending. There are structural changes too – spending on computers and software has fallen proportionately, even as e-commerce has continued to increase.
  • Haldane of the Bank of England is scheduled to speak, as is New York Fed President Dudley. Dudley is due to retire soon, but the regional Fed presidents have a higher profile at the Federal Reserve, given the shortage of government appointed governors.