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Expelliarmus

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The mass expulsion of Russian diplomats from several countries around the world is not market relevant of itself – being diplomatic rather than economic. The response is more forceful than might have been expected, but if disagreements remain diplomatic, then the market risks are minimized.
  • Weidmann of the ECB and the Bundesbank was advocating that policy tightening start sooner rather than later. Markets are not necessarily astounded by this revelation. Weidmann appeared to give support to the ideas that bond buying will end by the end of 2018, and rates will rise in the second quarter of next year.
  • Weidmann was also critical of cryptocurrencies, in a somewhat dismissive manner. There is no need for policy makers to take cryptocurrencies seriously as currencies, as they are unlikely to ever be currencies (in the legal economy). However, there are policy consequences from the transfer of wealth from bubble buyers to bubble sellers as the bubble continues to deflate.
  • The economic calendar is light. Bostic of the US Fed is speaking, which is the main event. Spanish consumer price inflation is unlikely to raise much passion in markets, and an opinion poll on US consumer confidence is due.