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Economists – it's still not our fault

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Economists would like to reiterate that the volatility of the equity markets is still nothing to do with them. The economic outlook has not changed. The impact of equities on the economic outlook remains minimal. Media commentators using the word "correction" has no economic meaning either.
  • As Wall Street got upset, the US government quietly got on with the business of shutting itself down. Republicans in the Senate delayed a budget deal which has provoked a shut-down for now. Increasing the budget deficit will likely increase the US current account deficit (although the propensity to import from government spending is lower than the propensity to import from tax cuts).
  • The Fed's George is due to speak. With a lawyer presiding over the US Federal Reserve, the views of other Fed members are more important (technically, George is not an economist). Trump's Fed nominee Goodfriend may not be confirmed by the Senate.
  • The Bank of England's Cunliffe is due to speak as expectations of a UK rate hike start to firm. The Bank of England revised the UK economic outlook higher, following better global growth. Europeans offer a selection of industrial production numbers which should confirm the relative strength of the economy.