Follow Paul Donovan

Politics, politics, politics, politics

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The end of the world's most tedious political crisis is in sight, as the German government coalition talks reached agreement. The SPD membership still has to vote, but opinion polls are suggesting that they will. The whole process emphasizes the relative unimportance of politicians – the German economy has carried on perfectly well.
  • A US Congressional vote on a two-year budget deal seems likely. The Senate seems set to vote in favor, the House vote is less certain. Investors will watch the reaction of bonds. Tax cuts and government spending with high deficits and full employment is an interesting challenge to conventional economic wisdom.
  • The Bank of England decides on interest rates today. No change is expected now, but another rate rise is increasingly likely this year. The government's leaked "impact assessment" on leaving the EU suggests that areas which voted to leave will be amongst the worst affected.
  • German trade data is due. This is politically sensitive. US President Trump has criticized the Germans for daring to sell things that Americans want to buy. Assorted ECB speakers are scheduled. Mersch will be talking on cryptocurrencies. The phrase "Ponzi scheme" has become very fashionable in describing such things.