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Four from the Fed?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Former US Federal Reserve Chair Yellen suggested that there were few systemic risks in the US financial system, but that the current fiscal position was troubling. This is a rather consensus view, but the former Fed chair presumably had access to better information than the consensus. Current Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated rates should go up.
  • US fourth quarter GDP data is due today. There is no point getting worked up over the detail. The data is going to be revised significantly. However, the broad picture is of a US economy performing at or above trend, justifying four rate hikes this year.
  • The UK BRC shop price index showed ongoing deflation in the prices of things people buy frequently. This reduces the perception (though not the reality) of the cost of exiting the EU. Meanwhile, the EU will publish what it has already leaked – draft legislation for saying goodbye to the British.
  • French consumer price inflation is due, after German consumer price inflation did not do very much. Nonetheless, with the Euro area economy growing above trend, with employment rising, and with bank lending rising, it is hard for the ECB to justify running an emergency quantitative policy.