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The minutes might mean more from the Fed

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Markets await the minutes of the last US Federal Reserve meeting. The US labor market is tight. It seems unlikely that there will be a flood of immigrants from Mexico or Norway to ease that tightness. The US government is throwing stimulus at the economy. There will be inflationary consequences. Will the Fed raise more than three times this year? We think it will.
  • Euro PMI business sentiment data is due. It is not worth spending any time on.
  • Cryptocurrencies are not worth spending much time on either, but the Venezuelans raised just over USD 700 million with the launch of what they call a cryptocurrency. It is not clear what this proves, other than the irrationality of markets. The Bank of England governor joined the mass of experts stating the obvious – that cryptocurrencies are not currencies.
  • In the UK, a faction of anti-European Conservatives (what might be called the Mogg Momentum group) have written to the prime minister to urge that Europe be denied access to the UK's customs union. The existence of the letter perhaps indicates the increased prospects for a soft exit from the EU. If a soft exit were not realistic, the letter would not be necessary.