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Inflated fears

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US consumer price inflation is due, with some market participants getting very excited about a single data point. It is never a good idea to get very excited about a single data point. It is worth remembering that a large part of consumer price inflation is pure fiction.
  • US retail sales are also due, and the national pastime of leaping into the family fleet of SUVs and heading to the shopping mall should be in evidence. Most Americans have a job, and while wage growth has slowed, the high level of employment supports household income.
  • The Germans have been busy revising GDP and consumer price inflation data, and with Teutonic efficiency have not made many changes. Italian and Eurozone GDP are also scheduled. There really is nothing of interest to see here, and investors should feel free to move on.
  • Japanese GDP growth ended 2017 a little weaker than expected, in both real and nominal terms. The Japanese use the exaggeration of annualization which makes the data look worse than it is, but the economy slowed – albeit from positively revised growth in the third quarter. The revisions again remind us not to get excited about single data points.