Follow Paul Donovan

Trump vows to tax US consumers more aggressively

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US President Trump, who has already raised taxes on the US consumer once this year, is vowing to do so again. On Monday, the president suggested a reciprocal tax on imported goods (details were not forthcoming). Generally, such taxes tend to hit lower income consumers more than higher income consumers.
  • The US NFIB opinion poll survey of small business sentiment is due, and should be given all the respect such surveys are due (i.e. none). In the past, the NFIB survey has exhibited some political bias, which might be interesting to attempt to observe this time.
  • The UK is offering producer price inflation (a useful indication of company pricing power), consumer price inflation (a useful reminder of the Bank of England's target) and retail price inflation (of no use to anyone except holders of inflation-linked gilts). The BoE does expect inflation to moderate, and this is unlikely to change its policy path.
  • South African politics is playing out with the ANC reportedly calling on President Zuma to step down (parliament can force the issue). This has limited shock value for markets.