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Dodgy data. Shocking!

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

The US Federal Reserve should raise interest rates in March, and raise interest rates a total of three times this year. The statement accompanying an unchanged policy position yesterday has done nothing to change that expectation. Talk of "further" rate increases may have increased confidence in tightening.

A Bloomberg report suggests that China's 2015 growth data was wrong (deliberately increased). This is simply shocking. Markets would no doubt react dramatically were it not for the fact that 1) markets do not care about revisions from three years ago, and rarely care about revisions from three months ago; and 2) the inaccuracies of US data are just as bad, if not worse.

On the subject of dubious data, Eurozone manufacturing business sentiment PMI surveys and US manufacturing sentiment ISM surveys are due. Ignore them. If you must pay attention to the numbers (it is not recommended), then the employment and price subcomponents at least have a passing acquaintance with reality.

A leaked EU memo suggests that the EU is threatening dire consequences if the UK tries to become more competitive after leaving. The EU wishes the UK to be as uncompetitive as the rest of the EU. Or else.