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The morning after the celebration before

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Financial markets seem to be having a "morning after" feeling after the handshake trade deal between China and the US. US President Trump's economic adviser was sounding vague on the details – saying that there was no "specific agreement" with China on auto tariffs.
  • Even with uncertainty about what has been agreed, if the 25% US taxes are postponed it might improve the prospect of a deal being done. The full effect of the 10% tax has yet to hit the US consumer. As its effects become more obvious in 2019, there may be more pressure for a lasting deal.
  • The interminably tedious process of separating the UK and the EU remains tedious and interminable. The UK parliament is to debate censuring the government. This is unlikely to change the outcome of the vote on the withdrawal agreement (rational debate is not playing much of a role in the process at the moment).
  • Media reports suggest the EU has a blueprint for the euro to play a stronger international role. As globalization peaks, the benefits of reserve currency status diminish. Reserve status generally requires a large, transparent, coherent financial market. Europe's large, transparent, coherent financial market is in the process of leaving the EU.