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Never mind the headlines, look at the details

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Chinese data showed stabilization at a lower rate of growth. Industrial production grew more slowly, but manufacturers are stepping up investment. This matters – China's near-record level of imports from Europe is helped by the rising trend of investment equipment imports. Imports from the US are at a three-year low.
  • US industrial production and retail sales numbers are due. Some US companies may have outsourced production after the trade taxes, on a small scale. US consumers are not significantly affected by the latest trade taxes; much of what is bought today was imported before the September tax hike. US President Trump is to put the delay to the 25% tax in writing.
  • Japan's business sentiment survey, the Tankan, showed concerns about the future but stronger investment plans. Planned investment does not always mean investment, but this pattern would fit with trade concerns plus labor shortages. European business sentiment opinion polls are due.
  • In the interminably tedious EU-UK divorce, nothing stirs. UK PM May went to Brussels. UK PM May returned from Brussels. The Austrian Chancellor hinted at a January EU meeting, which might give some hope in the wake of the expected January defeat of the withdrawal agreement by the UK parliament.