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Do you feel confident?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • UK PM May has the confidence of 63% of Conservative MPs. A couple of years ago, opposition leader Corbyn had the confidence of 19% of Labour MPs. They are debating how to implement a vague policy backed by 52% of voters. Probably 99% of the UK population has no interest.
  • The Italian government is projecting a budget deficit of exactly 2.04% next year. Economic data is not accurate. Economic forecasting is not accurate. Economists use decimal points in their estimates to prove they have a sense of humor. The Italians were quick to point out that their precise projections are likely to be lower than France's deficit.
  • The ECB council meets, and the ECB economists will update their forecasts out to 2021 (please see the earlier point on forecast accuracy). The bond buying program sort of ends – but the ECB's balance sheet to GDP ratio has been organically tightening for a while.
  • The US has the normal tense watching of the Trump Twitter Feed for comments on trade. Import and export price data is due today. This does not reflect the trade taxes, of course – those are paid by American consumers and companies after the goods reach the US.