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Let economists be economists

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Once upon a time, the job of an economist was to talk about economics. Now, most of the job seems to be trying to second-guess what politicians will do next. US President Trump was sounding conciliatory on trade yesterday, allowing equity markets to rally. Rising trade taxes are particularly damaging to equities, so any concessions from Trump will inevitably help markets.
  • In the UK, politicians are excited about a possible no confidence motion in Prime Minister May. Investors may feel that time spent arguing about who runs the country is time not spent running the country, and if a hard exit (which investors do not want) is to be avoided, it might be quite useful if someone were to run the country.
  • Eurozone industrial production for October is due. This data is complicated by the problems of the German auto sector.
  • US consumer price inflation is scheduled for release. This is not the Fed's favored indicator (a large part of the index not being market determined), but markets do pay attention. Oil prices will start to lower the headline and core measures, but the breadth of wage increase may work to increase inflation pressures.