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Not loco, but boring

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The unchanged US Federal Reserve policy position yesterday was expected. The December rate hike to come will be expected. The Fed is not loco to be tightening like this – a gradual, predictable increase in interest rates is justified by the strength of the US economy.
  • US producer price inflation is due, signalling the extent of pricing power (and also the way in which US President Trump's trade tax increases are feeding into US supply chains). Fed policy is targeting inflation in 2020 rather than today, but producer prices are still a market relevant indicator.
  • UK economic growth is expected to have picked up a little in the third quarter. The UK consumer is happily employed, with reasonable wage growth. As such, they are willing to spend. There is more EU-UK noise in the media. If investors hide under their duvets, it might go away.
  • The head of the Eurogroup is in Italy to talk deficits with the government. Europe fears that the Italian growth and deficit forecasts are likely wrong. This is true, but the European Union's growth and deficit forecasts for Italy are also likely wrong. Arguing over decimal points in economic forecasts gives a false idea about the precision of forecasting.