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Trade and the Twitter Feed

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Yesterday's firing of the US Attorney-General and the presidential press conference may distract the media from the election result. They are unlikely to distract markets from economics. The US economy should slow from the sugar high from the deficit-financed tax cuts, to give OK growth alongside a Fed that continues to move towards neutral.
  • China's exports to the US slowed a little but continued to grow strongly in October. The pattern suggests "front loading" before more taxes on US consumers of Chinese products on 1 January. Some of the earlier tariffs may be evaded – the drop in US imports of taxed Chinese products hints at supply chain manipulation.
  • German and French trade data for September are due. Revisions to other data hint at possible positive revisions to 3Q Eurozone GDP data. Markets, however, are less likely to focus on revisions to growth and more likely to focus on any reaction to trade numbers on the Trump Twitter Feed.
  • UK cabinet ministers are being locked in a room with the agreed parts of the EU-UK divorce (they are let out later). The Northern Ireland border is not agreed. A deal will probably come at the last minute. This is not the last minute.