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Binary outcomes

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The G20 taxpayer financed weekend minibreak for hardworking global leaders gets underway in Buenos Aires. The focus is not the summit, but the dinner between Chinese President Xi and US President Trump. There are hopes for a Juncker-style handshake deal, but questions about whether the 25% tax on US consumers (due in January) could be stopped without also reversing the 10% tax on US consumers (already in place).
  • The US Federal Reserve minutes effectively confirmed a December rate hike (as much as such things can do). With growth slowing from above trend towards trend, it would be appropriate to keep tightening policy in 2019. However, the Fed has signalled that tightening may be more data dependent, less auto-pilot.
  • A mass of Japanese data was published overnight, offering few surprises on inflation and unemployment. The industrial production numbers were stronger than expected – bouncing back after recent disruption, but at more than double the expected growth rate.
  • Europe has German retail sales (the German consumer has been a little lacklustre lately). French inflation numbers have a slightly political tone given the recent protests over the cost of living in France. Euro area consumer price inflation should come in just above the ECB target.