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Economists are good. They are not that good.

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Italy's Salvini is suggesting that a budget deficit forecast of 2.2% of GDP rather than 2.4% of GDP might be acceptable. This emphasizes that deficits in Europe are about political spin not economic reality. Economists cannot make a reliable forecast of a 0.2% deficit change. If we get the number before the decimal point right, we congratulate ourselves.
  • Tensions are rising between Russia and the Ukraine. Unless sanctions become a focus, this is not likely to concern financial markets. The 27 remaining members of the EU voted in favor of the UK divorce deal. Their votes are not the problem. The UK Parliament's vote is the problem.
  • ECB President Draghi speaks. Markets are interested with the imminent end of bond buying. The German ifo business sentiment survey is due. Last week's sentiment data suggested weak exports (even as EU exports to China hit a record high last month). That may add interest to today's numbers.
  • The cryptocurrency bubble continues to deflate. The bubble was never intense enough to do major economic damage. Some countries may see shifts in power demand. Otherwise this is a personal tragedy for those who bought into the bubble, and a wealth transfer to the few bubble sellers.