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The Italian job

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • With the US off preparing for the great American pastime of visiting the shopping mall (tomorrow), it is down to Europe to provide the entertainment for investors. Italy was told it might be "sleepwalking into instability" by the European Commission, which is quite strong language for a 2.4% budget deficit in a country that has never lost market access during the crisis.
  • The Italian situation and the possibility of disciplinary procedures may be a focus around the cluster of ECB speakers today (notes from the last policy meeting are also due). Markets are assuming that the quantitative policy bond buying concludes at the end of this year, but have an interest in what happens to rates in 2019.
  • The interminably tedious process of separating the EU from the UK continues. The increase in UK Prime Minister May's frequent flier points earned on flights to Brussels is inversely proportional to the interest investors have in the negotiations.
  • Japan's consumer price inflation saw a modest increase in the headline rate on fresh food prices. Oil prices should work to lower the rate in the near term, and there may be some technical (non-market) factors pushing inflation lower next year.