Follow Paul Donovan

Is anyone feeling passionate about Brexit? Anyone?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US Fed Chair Powell signaled a December rate hike. This is no surprise to anyone. Real borrowing costs are very low, alongside a strong US economy. The Fed chair did highlight some risks, but was stressing current economic strength.
  • The UK cabinet apparently had an "impassioned debate" about the EU-UK exit deal. The odd former journalist or former hedge fund manager is passionate. Everyone else is bored of the topic and wants it to go away. Anyone who can be bothered can choose to speculate about whether a deal will pass Parliament.
  • The EU trade balance is due. It is national trade rather than the EU trade position that attracts political attention at the moment. US import prices should show that companies are not cutting prices to offset US trade taxes (though they are finding ways to evade the taxes altogether).
  • China is reportedly offering "concessions" on trade to the US, by taking existing policies and recycling them. This worked well for EU Commission President Juncker. It might possibly even produce a "handshake" deal at the G20 that stops the January US tax increase. It seems unlikely that there will be a "chocolate cake" moment and a full deal.