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The end of the beginning for Brexit?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The UK cabinet meets on the interminably tedious process of divorcing the UK from the EU. We should not get caught up in the heady excitement of the moment – there are lots of hurdles to clear. Sterling did rally, perhaps so foreign exchange dealers can prove they are awake and should not be replaced by artificial intelligence.
  • The oil price fell with all the drama of a cryptocurrency move. Unlike cryptocurrency moves, a drop in the oil price matters in the real world. This lowers headline and core inflation rates, and may reduce demand for US dollars. Global economic strength suggests that the weakness may be short lived.
  • German GDP fell in the third quarter. This was expected after auto company problems. Industry data suggests a bounce back in the fourth quarter. The Eurozone aggregate number will be published today. Chinese industrial activity was a little better than expected.
  • There is quite a lot of inflation data due. French and Spanish numbers are "final" and can be ignored. The UK suite of inflation statistics will be drowned out by the debate about Europe. US consumer prices are a little more market worthy, and may reflect some of the earlier oil price declines.