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Stormy data

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Bond markets have been getting excited. The US economy has been growing in the way economists expected. The Fed has been signalling that it will react in the way economists expect. Somehow bond markets are surprised by this. The lesson is that the secret to a long and prosperous life is always to listen to economists.
  • We get the US employment report today. This data will be hit by the east coast storms. Storms tend to lower employment (people cannot get to work). Average hourly earnings, which are not wages, will tend to rise as low income people are not paid.
  • US Vice President Pence accused China of meddling in the US mid-term elections. This may raise trade tensions. However, the interesting question is, if China is meddling are they for or against US President Trump? The Trump tax on trade is mildly negative for China. On the other hand, over a third of the income tax cuts were spent on imports, helping make China great again.
  • Reform of the World Trade Organization is to be discussed. The US and China are not being invited to the discussions. Meanwhile, Brazil has the first round of its presidential election race this weekend.