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A Tale of Two Economies

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • It was the best of times. It was the worst of times, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair. Welcome to the tale of two economies. On the one hand, the global economy is humming along nicely. Unemployment is low in much of the world. Inflation is generally contained. The real cost of capital is low, and may be falling.
  • On the other hand, markets are nervous that US President Trump will lower the yoke of higher taxes onto the shoulders of US consumers again. Media reports suggest more taxes on US consumption of goods partially made in China. The success of modern large corporations assumes that they are part of the global economy. Threatening that causes market volatility.
  • Chancellor Merkel's decision not to contest the 2021 German election as party leader is not a surprise. It does add uncertainty as to Merkel's role in Europe in the interim.
  • German and Spanish consumer price inflation numbers are due. Eurozone GDP is unlikely to excite markets much. US consumer confidence may have more importance for investors than normal because of the nearness of the mid-term elections.