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Political inconstancy

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The right-wing candidate for Brazil's presidential election has secured victory. This was the outcome markets had expected. The composition of the economic team during the transition will be monitored. Markets would probably appreciate signs of economic continuity.
  • Germany is rather lacking in continuity at the moment. Regional elections in Hesse saw a significant loss of support for the two federal coalition partners. The question for investors is whether this leads the junior coalition partner, the SPD, to try and distance itself from the policies of Chancellor Merkel. The move may help shift the center of European politics toward Paris, although whether Macron can exert leadership without Merkel is a subject for speculation.
  • US personal income and personal spending data. The last data showed personal income rising 4.7% y/y. This is a better indicator of consumer spending power than average earnings. It also suggests that the real cost of borrowing is low and may be falling (borrowing costs should be deflated by income growth).
  • The World Trade Organization will be discussing US accusations of intellectual property theft by China. Markets will not care much. The UK has credit data and a budget. Markets are unlikely to care much.