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Strong statements

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US President Trump has said that the Saudi journalist Khashoggi is dead, and that the US will make a very strong statement. It does not appear that very strong arms sales to Saudi will be stopped. For markets, the president's views are not very relevant. Whether Congress acts and how Saudi Arabia might react matter.
  • One of the many, many presidents of the EU made a strong statement about the Italian budget. Italian bond yields are still elevated. Italian grandmothers could pay for the national debt three or four times over (Italy's private sector is extremely wealthy). Default risk must be considered to be low.
  • China's GDP growth was reported as 6.5%. China's economy should be slowing, though it seems highly unlikely that the 6.5% figure is accurate (no country's GDP data is accurate). China's GDP matters more to global GDP data than it does to the world economy. China is a large economy (high weighting in global aggregate data) but not an especially integrated economy.
  • UK public sector finance data is due – with promises of relaxed fiscal policy in the future. Bostic of the Fed is to speak on growth, as the Fed minutes signalled overheating a greater risk than recession.