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Let's move to Asia

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The irrelevant data flow continues with the US ISM manufacturing sentiment opinion poll. Since 2010, the relevant ISM indices have had negative correlations for output, employment and inventories. No doubt the data will be reported without any questioning of its relationship to the real world.
  • The US FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve are a little more helpful (they are unlikely to reference sentiment surveys). Investors may be inclined to underestimate how many interest rate hikes will be required to maintain balance in the US economy. Investors need to be careful in interpreting the minutes as the composition of the FOMC does change significantly this year.
  • The UK government, which plans to leave a supranational trade organization next door to it, hopes to join a supranational trade organization on the other side of the world (the TPP). As the UK is mainly a service exporter and as global trade in physical products is probably peaking, seeking an Asian alliance is not entirely impractical.  
  • German unemployment data is due but is unlikely to be a major focus. The assumption is that the German labor market will remain strong, supporting the consumer. The absence of a coherent government in Berlin is no obstacle to that.