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The dollar goes down

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US President Trump once suggested dollar strength was a measure of people's confidence in the Trump presidency. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin appears to have lost confidence, seemingly advocating dollar weakness. Ultimately, politicians do not matter much to currencies. The dollar's problem is a widening current account deficit and fewer international investors who wish to support it.
  • Economically, the world has moved on from the 1970s. The world is more integrated, and supply chains are more complex. Exporters do not tend to change overseas prices on currency moves. Currency moves are more about profit margins than they are about volumes of exports or levels of economic activity.
  • Today's ECB press conference will doubtless have some focus on the currency markets – goodness knows ECB policy is nothing to get excited about. ECB President Draghi's addiction to easing may lead to some concerns being expressed about the euro, but the euro cannot be described as overvalued.
  • US new home sales data are due, following some slightly softer housing indicators. From Germany, the ifo business sentiment opinion poll is scheduled.