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US government risks shutdown, Trump Twitter Feed unaffected

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US government risks a partial shutdown tonight; the Trump Twitter Feed should not be affected. The release of economic data may stop, however. The House has passed a temporary funding measure, but this faces obstacles in the Senate. The position of the president is not entirely clear.
  • The economic damage of a shutdown should be limited, if the shutdown is relatively short lived. Government workers should be able to smooth their consumption. A longer slowdown would start to do more serious damage.
  • The French and Germans will propose a Euro area banking union with a common corporate tax base. A banking union is perhaps nineteen years too late, but better late than never. The corporate tax idea reflects current concerns about competitiveness. The US did not reduce corporate tax much in reality (given the loopholes in the old tax rate), but the modern obsession with spin rather than substance tends to focus attention on the headline rate.
  • The UK releases retail sales data. The UK consumer may have more resources than official data suggests. Savings have been hidden by structural changes in the economy. The inflation rate seems to have been lower, and the real growth rate higher than officially reported.