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The many burdens economists must bear

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Economists face many challenges: politicians trying to interfere; the trivialization of hashtag economics; people believing in PMI data. However, one of the biggest challenges is the declining quality of economic data. Japanese second quarter GDP was revised – from an initial 4% annualized growth to 2.5% annualized growth.
  • Media reports suggest US President Trump is considering at least six names for the next Fed Chair (it is not clear if Ivanka Trump is on the shortlist). The level of central bank experience of some candidates makes it important that a quantitative policy tightening strategy is put in place sooner rather than later.
  • China had slower export growth and faster import growth than expected. The US seemingly has trade tariffs a policy objective (not a means of achieving a policy objective), so this is unlikely to reduce tensions. German trade is in focus, with the US and with the rest of Europe. UK trade is only a focus in the UK.
  • US consumer credit is due, late in the day. China's central bank seems to be attempting to reduce speculative credit, by raising the cost of short-term money.