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Central banks, policy and independence

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The European Central Bank meets. It seems unlikely that an announcement of tapering quantitative policy will be made as the bank has not done its preparatory ‎homework. ECB President Draghi will no doubt sound dovish. Comments or the absence of comments on the euro are a focus.
  • ‎US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Fischer announced his resignation yesterday. Assuming Fed Chair Yellen is not reappointed, this means that US President Trump can appoint five members of the Fed board. Putting in place a firm commitment to multi-year quantitative policy tightening seems ever more important.
  • The Fed's Beige Book reported good growth and a tight labor market, with labor shortages in construction and manufacturing. This is before Trump has brought jobs back to America. Production and sales of autos were softer however. This seems more a sector-specific issue than an economic issue.
  • The UK parliament starts debating EU exit legislation. There are attempts to freeze assets of the North Korean leadership. Trump has done a deal with Congressional Democrats to temporarily extend the debt ceiling. German industrial production and US productivity numbers are scheduled.