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"Winter is coming" levels of crossness

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US government is sounding quite cross with North Korea – not "fire and fury" perhaps, but certainly "winter is coming". The Chinese are sounding quite cross with the US – at least with the implied threat of trade sanctions against China. Markets are more likely to price the trade threat than any conflict threat.
  • China has declared initial coin offerings to be illegal, and crypto-currencies (a related asset) have weakened sharply. The movement demonstrates why economists do not consider most crypto-currencies to be currencies. A currency must be an accepted medium of exchange (paying taxes for instance) and must maintain some store of value.
  • Assorted opinion polls on service sector sentiment are scheduled for release. Hopefully, media attention will be distracted and these figures will receive the attention that they deserve.
  • Revised US durable goods orders data is scheduled, including proxies for investment. There are a few Federal Reserve speakers, but markets assume an announcement of a tightening of quantitative policy to be a done deal at this month's Federal Reserve meeting.