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Celebrate consumers

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Consumer data covers the calendar today. Japan's household spending numbers were positive, but not as positive as had been expected. Japanese consumers struggle with a perception of high inflation (consumer price inflation was 0.7% y/y, but consumers think it higher). Better wage growth would help domestic demand.
  • German retail sales data is expected to show 3.2% y/y growth. US retail sales are also currently growing at 3.2% y/y – Germans are behaving with the same wild, reckless hedonism that Americans display (sort of); German consumers are a smaller share of the economy. Revised French and Italian consumer inflation data and UK credit data are due.
  • US personal consumption and personal income data are due, and are not expected to offer anything very exciting. The focus will probably tilt towards the personal consumer expenditure deflator, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation figure. The headline rate is expected to increase a little.
  • German Chancellor Merkel was sounding positive about French President Macron's European plans (this has a bearing on German coalition building). Investors will monitor the number of votes cast and the proportion in favor of independence in Sunday's attempted Catalonian vote. If both numbers are high, investor uncertainty about Spain and Europe may increase.