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No tweet, no war

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • French President Macron is to deliver a very big speech, outlining very big proposals for part of Europe (if you are not in the Eurozone, you are not likely to be noticed). Macron is tackling the fact that the euro does not work (and has never worked) as a monetary union. The challenge is the political environment after the German election result.
  • North Korea has said the US has declared war. The US has said it has not. There has been no tweet on the Trump Twitter feed, so it seems unlikely that war has been declared. The noise with Korea (and the National Football League) may minimize the focus on the third failure to repeal Obamacare.
  • Fed Chair Yellen is due to speak on uncertainty and policy. The main uncertainty is whether the Fed will raise rates in December. There is also uncertainty about the economic relationships that the Fed uses when assessing the economic outlook.
  • The data calendar is light. There are opinion polls on business confidence (France) and consumer confidence (the US). US new home sales may get some attention. Housing data could be a contributor to inflation as labor shortages and reconstruction demands raise costs.