Follow Paul Donovan

Politics. So much politics

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The German election has not produced a conclusion, but it was never likely to. After a poor result, the SPD indicated it does not intend to participate in a grand coalition government. That increases uncertainty for markets. Anti-establishment parties performed well – the right wing AfD was the second largest party in former East Germany.
  • Chancellor Merkel's negotiations with the Greens and the FDP are likely to take time; there are significant differences over EU integration, defense and environmental policies. French President Macron's integration plans may be overshadowed. UK exit talks are theoretically with the EU rather than individual governments.
  • The populist New Zealand First party holds the balance of power after the country's election. Japanese Prime Minister Abe is expected to call an election to capitalize on perceived opposition weakness (see the UK, Germany, New Zealand for risks to this). In the US, indications are that Senate Republicans do not have the votes to win the latest attempt at healthcare reform.
  • Away from politics, Germany publishes the Ifo business confidence opinion poll. Draghi of the ECB speaks (no doubt dovishly). Several US Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled, with December's meeting in focus as a possible monetary policy tightening event.