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Simultaneous growth

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The mid-cycle global growth position should be shown by revised French GDP data today. France, like the Eurozone, is growing above trend. The Eurozone, like most of the OECD, is growing faster this year than it did last year. Growth is locally driven, but there is a simultaneous improvement.
  • A single data point should not change investment decisions, but there is a pattern of good growth data. There is very little prospect of a recession in the next twelve months. The normal drivers of recession (policy error or economic bubbles) seem absent.
  • Japanese labor market data continued to show strength, but household spending was disappointingly negative again. It may be that Japanese consumers' (wrong) perceptions of inflation are weighing on their willingness to spend. North Korea fired a missile over Japan, which has not had a market impact.
  • The US offers Conference Board consumer confidence data. Media influences consumer sentiment, and political bias can readily creep into survey responses. Given the polarized nature of US politics at the moment, this suggests treating the data with more-than-normal caution.