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Achieving economic greatness

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The changes of the fourth industrial revolution mean that a country's long-term economic greatness will depend on maximizing as many of the skills of as many members of its population as is possible (this creates productivity). Prejudice – irrationally discriminating against a group to prevent them maximizing their potential – undermines productivity and economic greatness.
  • The US Federal Reserve's decision was as investors expected. There was a hint of a September passive quantitative policy tightening – Fed Chair Yellen's Jackson Hole speech could give technical details. Inflation below 2% was acknowledged, with a belief that it will revert to target in the medium term. Fed policy operates to influence the medium term.
  • German consumer confidence data is due. German consumers are not known for their exuberance, and the media cycle often has more impact on consumer sentiment than does the economic cycle. Nonetheless, as the general election approaches, this may assume greater importance.
  • More data on UK consumer spending is due from the CBI, which is of some interest given questions about domestic demand resilience. US durable goods orders data is expected. This is sometimes taken as a proxy for investment spending, but there are questions over whether investment spending captures investment properly, far less its proxies.