Admitting to an easing addiction is the first step
- Today ECB President Draghi should admit his easing addiction to the ECB governing council, and start the process of recovery. We do not expect the ECB to announce a tapering of bond buying today, but the ECB could signal that such an announcement will come in September.
- Japanese export data was stronger than expected. This is part of a pattern that has been emerging. The good news is that it is a signal of consistent global growth. The bad news is that it may provoke protectionism (especially as US President Trump has little else to focus on now).
- This month's UK/EU or EU/UK divorce negotiations conclude, exhibiting all the constructive relationship success of Fatal Attraction. Only policy geeks are interested. Retail sales data is more relevant. Real wages are not necessarily declining (real average earnings are, but that is different), which may give some resilience to today's data.
- The US Philly Fed business sentiment survey is due. About half of the regional sentiment surveys have turned down in the US, but this reflects the unrealistic levels of optimism of the past, not any weakness in the real world in the present.