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It's tightening time (almost everywhere)

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Fed Chair Yellen testified to Congress as the Canadians joined the charmed circle of central banks tightening policy. Although markets seized on Yellen's comments as favoring accommodation, there was nothing to suggest anything other than a further rate hike this year and passive quantitative policy tightening before year-end.
  • The Fed's Beige Book of anecdotal evidence indicated contained price pressures for now, but a tighter labor market producing wage gains. The US consumer is alive and well and in a shopping mall somewhere (though seemingly averse to buying another car to add to the family fleet of SUVs). Producer prices are due today.
  • China joined the lengthy list of countries experiencing better export growth. There are dangers in this, in that stronger exports (other than stronger US exports) risk negative comment on the Trump Twitter feed. Nonetheless, the improving trade picture is an indication of a stronger global growth story.
  • The UK Great Repeal Bill (for getting out of the EU) is published today – it will be subject to amendments, but as the opposition Labour party is at least as committed to exiting the EU as the government, that is unlikely to change. The Euro area offers final consumer price inflation.