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The absence and reaffirmation of US leadership

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The G20 was a triumph of spin over substance. The apparent necessity of getting all 20 leaders to agree to a statement took away anything meaningful from that statement. Bilateral negotiations and the search for global leadership absent the US are the media focus – and neither is likely to excite investors right now.
  • US Fed Chair Yellen's testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday is the main focus for investors. Whatever the future of US political leadership, economic leadership under the Fed remains intact for now. The trend towards tightening is likely to remain relatively clear.
  • Chinese inflation data was published in a supremely unexciting way. Consumer and producer prices were both unchanged from the previous month. Consumer inflation is an entirely Chinese concern (weighted towards food), and producer prices have little international relevance.
  • German trade data is due; as a politically sensitive topic, investors may want to pay more attention than normal to the numbers. The US is offering consumer credit data.