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Trump to try diplomacy

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The decision by Saudi Arabia and others to cut ties with Qatar is disruptive to the economy, impacting travel and perhaps Qatari banks. Oil and gas supply seems unlikely to be disrupted. US President Trump wishes to "de-escalate" the situation; it is not clear that investors will regard this intervention as being likely to promote stability.
  • President Trump's press spokesperson suggested that Congress should pass a debt ceiling increase before August (this has not yet appeared on the Trump Twitter feed, so it may be subject to change). Media sources have the names of mooted nominees to Fed vacancies, which may be a bigger focus for markets.
  • Japanese wage growth was zero over the year to April for basic wages. Adding in bonus payments, cash income growth was stronger at 0.5%. The problem is that the Japanese consumer believes inflation to be far higher than that (it is not, but that is not the point).
  • Euro area retail sales are due. The European economic recovery has extended to consumers, albeit not necessarily in an even manner. UK BRC retail sales fell 0.4% on a like-for-like basis. This was a little weaker than expected, and reflects some constraints on real incomes.