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Economics is the new exciting

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The German ifo business sentiment data is due. There is a global inflation problem in that expectation opinion polls have been wildly inflated. Last week's PMI sentiment opinion polls in Europe started to correct to reflect economic reality – there, decline says more about survey problems than about the economy.
  • Qatar has been given a thirteen-point list of demands by its colleagues in the Gulf Cooperation Council, including closing the Al-Jazeera television station and closing a Turkish army base. The issue for investors is the increase in tension in the region this represents (with possible implications for oil and capital flows).
  • The Fed's Williams has declared that "Boring is the new exciting" and that the Fed should continue to raise rates as inflation will move to 2% in 2018. This echoes other Fed comments stressing longer-term trends rather than short-term noise as a guiding principle for the Fed.
  • Italian local elections produced a relatively strong result for right-wing parties, with the Northern League (who wish to leave the Euro) and Forza Italia (who wish to introduce a dual-currency regime) gaining ground. The UK will unveil its plans to keep three million productive EU workers in the country.