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Fantasy Friday

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Investors have the chance to live in the parallel universe of purchasing managers' surveys today. Business sentiment indicators are far stronger than economic reality - sentiment data tends to overreact to underlying economic fundamentals. Today's data for the Eurozone should correct at some point, though the consensus expectation for today remains elevated.
  • Dutch and French GDP revisions are due, and the revisions will be duly ignored by the financial markets. This is a problem as there is more value in revised data than in the initial release that financial markets tend to revere. Policy makers use revised data.
  • Four US Republican senators refused to back the latest Trumpcare healthcare proposals. The more time Congress spends on Trumpcare or the Russian question, the less time there is to spend on tax reform and fiscal matters, which are what investors care about.
  • Discussions on the rights of EU citizens in the UK mark the first real test of strength in divorce proceedings. The UK prime minister is proposing (essentially) the same rights as UK citizens. The EU (remarkably) is not trying to get back three million of its most productive citizens. The question is whether this proposal can pass the UK parliament.