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French elections and UK negotiations

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • French President Macron's party and its ally have won a majority in the national assembly elections. The majority should allow reform legislation to be passed although the record low voter turnout may encourage opposition from outside the legislature (in particular, from the trade unions).
  • There has been a serious incident in London, with a van hitting a number of people. The event has not yet been declared to be a terrorist act, but anti-terrorism specialists are investigating.
  • UK-EU negotiations for exiting the European Union begin today, but nothing meaningful is likely to emerge. Both sides will want to avoid confrontation so early in the process. The UK chancellor has reaffirmed the desire to leave the single market (over 80% of voters supported parties with that policy at the recent election). 
  • Japan's trade moved into deficit in May although the timing of public holidays means that May data is often distorted. Export data from Japan is consistent with a global economy operating around trend. Dudley of the US Federal Reserve and Nouy of the ECB are scheduled to speak today.