Follow Paul Donovan

US employment report – economics in a sea of politics

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • President Trump declared that the Trumpcare II healthcare bill united Republicans. Senate Republicans then disunited from House Republicans and began working on their own proposals. This matters because the Senate's deliberations may add delays to the tax reform process. It matters less to near-term economics.
  • The US employment report provides a welcome return to economic facts in a sea of political noise. The report is expected to show stable unemployment, and that as many jobs are being created as the limited labor supply will permit. The US is at full employment – what else could be expected?
  • Local election results from the UK are due. The unusual timing of local elections during a general election campaign leaves investors looking for the size of the swing to the Conservative Party, the fate of the UK Independence Party, and the result in Scotland (in the context of independence referendum demands).
  • Commodity price declines are exciting comment (financial media, ever eager to offer calm and rational analysis, is using the word "rout" a lot). The moves are unusual in an economic context – the dollar is weakening and global demand is rising. Not all commodity prices are falling – avocado prices remain at all-time highs.