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Life after inflation

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of economic gossip from around the country is due. This should confirm an economy that is growing normally, inflation that is normal, and full employment. The one thing that is not normal in the US is central bank policy, hence the belief that the Fed will raise rates in June.
  • Eurozone preliminary consumer price inflation ushers in the “after inflation” era. The large and obvious increase in headline inflation as a result of oil price changes has happened. Now we have noise around a broadly normal inflation rate. After inflation comes more inflation, but it is a more subtle form of inflation. 
  • A single UK opinion poll has predicted that the governing Conservative Party will lose its majority at next week’s election. Sterling has weakened. It is interesting that markets gave far more attention to the possibility of Le Pen winning in France than they have to the possibility of May losing in the UK.
  • Data overnight showed continued UK shop price deflation, with a modest increase in a consumer sentiment opinion poll. Japanese industrial production increased, but a little less than had been anticipated.